Polymarket traders see a 53% chance that President Donald Trump will formally rename artificial intelligence (AI) by Sept. 30. The odds rise to 69% for a year-end deadline.
Trump has pushed to swap “artificial” for “super” since mid-September. One State Department bureau already uses the new wording.
What the Trump Rename AI Bet Requires
The Polymarket contract has drawn about $670,000 in volume. Roughly 91% of it sits on Sept. 30, which trades at 53 cents.
Oct. 31 trades at 63% on only $3,179. Meanwhile, Dec. 31 stands at 69% with nearly $60,000 behind it.
Speeches and posts will not settle the bet. It resolves “Yes” only through an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum. That document must adopt a new federal AI name or direct agencies to use one.
From an X Poll to the UN Podium
Trump called the current term “inaccurate, and very ineloquent” and asked followers to pick a new one. In his poll, “Superior Intelligence” won about 41% of more than 230,000 votes. He later dropped “Supreme Intelligence,” citing its link to the Supreme Court.
At the United Nations (UN) General Assembly on Sept. 22, however, he chose a shorter label.
“From this point forward, all of United States documents and hopefully the world’s will be changed to use the much more accurate term ‘super’ as opposed to artificial.”
Two days later, he wrote “Super Intelligence (SI)” in a post about his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Already in Use, Not Yet Official
Some officials did not wait for paperwork. The same day, a senior official emailed staff at the State Department’s Bureau of International Organization Affairs, according to AP. The note told them to replace the old term in all documents and positions.
That email does not count for Polymarket. Critics, in contrast, question the rebrand itself. Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene argued that a new name will not calm local anger over data center water use and noise.
Jean-Pierre Dubé, a University of Chicago marketing professor, told Newsweek the label is premature. Superintelligence, he noted, already means AI surpassing human cognition.
Trump is also reportedly meeting AI CEOs on Sept. 29. A signed order before midnight Eastern Time on Sept. 30 would settle the nearest contract. Otherwise, traders will turn to the October and December dates.