XRP (XRP) enters October 2026 after gaining 48% in the third quarter, its best Q3 in four years. However, the token still trades 59% below its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65.
Strong institutional demand now meets a historically weak month, and the data points to a range-bound October.
XRP Fundamentals Pit ETF Demand Against October Headwinds
US spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) hold about 1.16 billion XRP, worth roughly $1.76 billion. Cumulative net inflows reached a record near $1.68 billion, according to XRP Insights.
Meanwhile, Ripple hosts its Swell conference in New York from October 27 to 29.
However, XRP has historically struggled in October. The token averaged a 5.14% October loss and closed the month lower in both 2024 and 2025.
Markets also price up to a 64% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the October 27 to 28 meeting.
Ripple can also release up to 1 billion XRP from escrow on October 1. In addition, the CLARITY Act failed a Senate vote 49 to 50 on September 15.
XRP’s fourth-quarter strength usually arrives later, with median returns of 80% in November and 63% in December.
On-Chain Data Shows Tightening XRP Supply
Glassnode data shows XRP exchange balances fell from about 12.9 billion to 11 billion tokens since April. Roughly 1.6 billion XRP left exchanges in the last two weeks alone.
The largest outflows arrived during the late-September pullback. However, the step-like drops may partly reflect custody transfers.
Outflows also preceded the August breakout, arriving two days before XRP jumped from $1.00 to above $1.50.
Daily ETF inflows peaked near 22 million XRP in late August and 20 million around September 24.
Large holders reportedly accumulated 470 million XRP in five days last week. In contrast, Binance’s XRP scarcity index recently fell to its lowest level since January 2025.
Still, inflows clustered during rallies and stayed quiet during the summer decline. ETF demand appears to follow price, so inflows could slow if XRP stalls.
XRP Price Prediction for October 2026 Hinges on $1.70
On the weekly chart, XRP broke the descending trendline that had capped price since the July 2025 peak. A high-volume August candle confirmed the breakout.
The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) also broke its own downtrend and sits near 55, above the midline. XRP holds support between $1.47 and $1.50.
However, the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $1.70 rejected price in August and again near $1.66 in September.
The four-hour chart shows a mature symmetrical triangle, with its trendlines converging around October 3. Resistance sits at $1.59, with support at $1.47 and $1.38.
The four-hour RSI reads a neutral 47, while lower highs hint at selling pressure.
A breakout could target $1.83, about 23% above the $1.49 lower boundary. A breakdown could send XRP toward $1.17, the 0.786 Fibonacci level, about 21% lower.
Swell and the Fed decision land in October’s final week. Until then, XRP may range between $1.47 and $1.70, while a weekly close above $1.70 could set up November.