SpaceX shares dropped by over 4% on September 23, just one day prior to a lockup expiration that made roughly 328 million shares available for the market.
This selling pressure arrives immediately ahead of Starship Flight 14, which marks the spacecraft’s initial intended journey into Earth orbit alongside its first commercial mission.
Starship Flight 14 Targets Orbit With Paying Cargo
SpaceX Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk announced on September 24 that preparations are underway for a launch on Monday, September 28. Prior to this, the launch tower’s mechanical arms successfully positioned Ship 41 atop Super Heavy Booster 21.
Previously, all Starship evaluations were deliberately kept to suborbital trajectories. SpaceX notes that the completely integrated 124-meter rocket is now targeting an orbit approximately 275 kilometers above the planet. The mission is scheduled to endure nearly 10 hours while completing about six planetary orbits.
Additionally, rather than carrying a dummy mass, the spacecraft will transport 26 Starlink V3 satellites. Bret Johnsen, the Chief Financial Officer, characterized this flight as the craft’s inaugural revenue-generating operation.
Even so, SpaceX will bypass a tower catch attempt. Because both stages are designed to be expendable, the booster will splash down into the Gulf of Mexico, while a deorbit burn will direct the ship to land in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile.
Why SpaceX Stock Faces Selling Pressure
Reports of the upcoming orbital test initially propelled the stock past $150 during mid-September. Since that time, an influx of new supply has exerted downward pressure on SpaceX shares. Rather than releasing all insider shares simultaneously, the corporation distributes them in phases, with the initial batch unlocking in August.
A subsequent tranche unlocked on September 9, resulting in a 3.9% decline for the stock that day.
Nevertheless, the expiration imposes no mandatory selling requirements on holders. The ultimate effect hinges entirely on the volume of insiders who decide to liquidate. Additional tranches are planned for release through June 2027.
Regarding core fundamentals, Wall Street views Flight 14 as a crucial validation milestone. Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, maintains a Buy recommendation alongside a $300 price target, suggesting a potential upside of roughly 99%. He believes the market currently underestimates SpaceX’s orbital computing and artificial intelligence initiatives.
A successful orbit and deployment of the satellites would provide Starship with its initial commercial verification. Until that time, the equity remains positioned between ongoing launch milestones and an expanding supply of tradable shares.