On Wednesday, S&P Global is set to publish its preliminary September Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the US. Compiled from surveys of leading private sector executives, these figures offer an early look at economic momentum and are anticipated to underscore US economic resilience.
The upcoming publication features a trio of metrics: the Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI, and the Composite PMI—a weighted blend of the other two. Each index is scaled so that figures exceeding 50 signal expansion, whereas readings falling beneath that mark point to contraction.
Published well in advance of many official government statistics, these monthly reports evaluate a wide range of factors, from export trends and production rates to employment, inventory volumes, and capacity utilisation, providing some of the earliest indications regarding the path of the economy.
What can we expect from the next S&P Global PMI report?
Traders forecast a slight moderation in the September flash Manufacturing PMI, shifting from 53.9 down to 53.5, alongside a projected decrease in the Services PMI from 56.5 to 56.
While a slight pullback is unlikely to alarm the markets, domestic business activity continues to sit firmly within expansion territory, further validating the prevailing narrative of US economic exceptionalism.
Should both readings deliver a substantial upside surprise, it would likely strengthen the US Dollar by validating reports of a robust economy and thereby reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s cautious, hawkish approach.
When will the September flash US S&P Global PMIs be released, and how could they affect EUR/USD?
The S&P Global Composite, Services, and Manufacturing PMIs are scheduled for publication on Wednesday at 13:45 GMT.
Prior to the figures going live, FXStreet Senior Analyst Pablo Piovano cautions that ongoing losses for EUR/USD remain a distinct possibility under current conditions, especially in the wake of the pair dropping below the vital 200-day Simple Moving Average situated above 1.1620.
If buyers manage to mount a comeback, the temporary 55-day and 100-day SMAs at 1.1526 and 1.1542 are projected to present early barriers ahead of the more significant 200-day SMA. A successful break above that key moving average would shift the target toward the August peak of 1.1711, recorded on August 21.
Conversely, Piovano points out that ongoing downward momentum should encounter initial support at the July 28 monthly low of 1.1353, followed by the June 24 floor for 2026 at 1.1324.
“Momentum indicators also favour extra declines as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches the 31 level and the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 29 is indicative of a forceful trend,” Piovano adds.