XRP (XRP) continues to display three bullish indicators across holder metrics, derivatives, and ETF data, even as the token relinquished a portion of its September gains on Thursday.
According to BeInCrypto Markets data, the token changed hands near $1.50 at the time of publication, marking a 24-hour decline of about 6.3%. Despite this downward movement, XRP remains up more than 15.6% for the week, tracking alongside a broader market recovery.
Year-Long XRP Holders Are Still Underwater
The initial bullish indicator stems from wallets that have maintained their XRP positions over the past year. Santiment figures show the altcoin’s 365-day market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio hovering around -11.75%. A negative MVRV metric indicates that the typical active wallet from that timeframe is currently experiencing losses.
By comparison, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Chainlink (LINK) metrics remain slightly above 0%, whereas Dogecoin (DOGE) registers a steeper loss at -19.26%.
Santiment notes that a depressed MVRV ratio typically restricts downward pressure because fewer participants hold unrealized profits to liquidate. XRP investors remained in negative territory following the rebound observed last week.
“Buying during that pain has historically offered better long-term setups,” the post read.
Futures Traders Return in Numbers Last Seen in January
While long-term participants continue to face losses, futures market participants have begun increasing their exposure once more. Binance open interest (OI) for XRP futures has advanced toward the $600 million threshold, returning to levels not observed since January.
This surge was highlighted by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. Open interest measures the total valuation of active futures contracts.
Furthermore, OI has broken decisively past its 180-day moving average, which sits near $445 million. Darkfost interpreted this movement as a sign of renewed speculation following an extended period of subdued market engagement. He added that positive funding rates point to buyers propelling the accumulation.
“This return of positive sentiment on XRP’s derivatives markets is therefore an encouraging signal for the current momentum. That said, it’s worth keeping in mind that OI remains dangerous in case of excess. That’s not the case today,” the analyst added.
XRP ETF Buyers Keep Showing Up Every Week
Finally, demand for spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has remained consistent. SoSoValue statistics indicate that these financial products have secured net inflows every single week since mid-July. This streak now spans 11 consecutive weeks, encompassing the current week concluding on September 23.
In contrast, Bitcoin and Ethereum investment vehicles lacked comparable consistency. Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows during three of those weeks, which included a $462.7 million withdrawal for the week ending September 11. Meanwhile, Ethereum-based funds shed $140 million during the week ending September 18.
Nonetheless, the capital inflows into XRP are comparatively modest. Most weekly totals ranged between $1 million and $20 million, though the week ending August 28 attracted $110.5 million. Total cumulative net inflows have now reached $1.75 billion.
2 Signals Keep the Bulls in Check
However, not all gauges of US-based demand have kept pace with ETF activity. CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain pointed out that the XRP price premium on Coinbase compared to Binance has compressed to roughly 0.0055%. Market participants frequently utilize this metric to evaluate domestic spot purchasing trends.
A sustained premium would suggest heightened buying interest on Coinbase, yet the existing spread displays no such strength.
Additionally, the calendar introduces a cautionary factor with October just a week away. CryptoRank information reveals that XRP has finished the month of October in the red across 8 out of the past 13 years, posting an average monthly loss of -5.14%. The digital asset also dropped 11.9% during October of last year.
Consequently, XRP enters a historically sluggish month backed by three bullish indicators. Whether spot purchasers on Coinbase decide to follow the lead of ETF investors may ultimately determine how well this strength is sustained.
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