Intraday copper futures climbed to a historic high of $6.95 a pound on September 22, finishing the session at a record $6.92. This milestone occurred a day after Michael Burry highlighted a copper mining company as his indirect play on artificial intelligence (AI).
The upward price movement has gathered momentum since the middle of September as purchasers in China built up inventories ahead of upcoming holidays.
Copper Leaves Gold and Silver Behind in 2026
So far in 2026, copper has advanced nearly 20%, bringing its gains over the past year to more than 46%. In comparison, gold is up 0.02% year-to-date, whereas silver has dropped 8.5%.
Looking at the trailing 12-month period, silver has climbed 49.2% and gold has gained 15.47%. Earlier this month, copper pulled back by nearly 8% following reports that a proposed tariff plan by the White House had stalled. Nevertheless, the industrial metal has since regained its upward momentum as the global market contends with supply deficits.
According to weekly Shanghai Metals Market figures released on Monday and cited by Bloomberg, Shanghai copper cathode stockpiles declined to 43,900 tonnes, marking the lowest level recorded since 2023.
Meanwhile, data from MINING.COM shows that cancelled warrants in London—representing metal earmarked for withdrawal from London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses—climbed to 122,150 tonnes on Tuesday. This accounts for 48% of the metal on warrant, leaving a remaining available supply of 133,725 tonnes.
Burry’s Copper Bet Rests on an 18-Year Mine Gap
This tightening supply environment aligns with the thesis Burry outlined a day before the record prices were set. In a September 21 Substack publication, he detailed why he is largely bypassing the broader AI stock boom.
“The house party is packed, pushing AI higher today, but I am largely ignoring the woo-hoos…I think of copper, and how it gets prettier as it ages,” he wrote.
To navigate this crowded market, he selected Ero Copper, a producer focused on operations in Brazil and backed by gold production as well. To support his investment choice, Burry referenced statistics provided by Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo.
Major copper discoveries—defined as deposits holding at least 500,000 tonnes—have plummeted from double digits annually down to just one or two, with zero major finds recorded in 2025.
This scarcity of new discoveries is critical because developing mines requires a lengthy timeline. Slok pointed out that newly discovered deposits typically need about 18 years to commence production, whereas data centers generate new copper demand in just two to three years.
A longer-term perspective from S&P Global shares a similar outlook, anticipating a 50% surge in demand to 42 million tonnes by 2040. Without major corrective measures, the firm forecasts a shortfall of 10 million tonnes by that time.
Even so, the near-term picture remains less definitive. CRU had previously estimated a global surplus of 639,000 tonnes for 2026, though by August it viewed the market as balanced at best. Burry also noted that a portion of the current price rally is driven by a temporary easing in supply.
Market participants are presently awaiting a final White House decision on tariffs, which will determine whether US stockpiles become accessible to international buyers.
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