Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, has shared his projections for the current Bitcoin (BTC) bull cycle, while also anticipating a subsequent bear market that will diverge from historical precedent.
Ju connects this perspective to shifts in Bitcoin’s ownership base and the evolving nature of the capital entering the market. His forecast coincides with the cryptocurrency trading near its peak values since January.
Ju Reads a Calmer Cycle in the On-Chain Data
Rather than anticipating another parabolic surge of 10x or more, Ju projects gains of 3 to 5 times for this cycle, followed by a milder bear market.
He attributes this outlook to Bitcoin’s expanded market size and increased institutional participation. In contrast, he observed that previous market cycles and their steep 80% corrections were driven by speculative retail capital.
To support his view, Ju highlighted on-chain metrics, noting that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has stayed above 1 throughout the current cycle.
“Some investors took losses, but holders as a whole never went underwater,” he said. “Even the PnL Index’s 365-day moving average, which typically lags at turning points, is forming a meaningful inflection right now.”
Furthermore, Ju pointed out an increase in realized capitalization alongside a halt in selling activity from early-adopter whales, while futures whales established substantial long positions near market bottoms.
“None of this means Bitcoin has a ceiling. It means the trade-off has changed. Giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash, and that is exactly what invites patient, long-horizon capital instead of hot money,” he wrote.
Doing the Math From Bitcoin’s June Low
Bitcoin’s recent rally in September provides context for his assessment. The cryptocurrency climbed to $87,395 on September 21, marking its highest price point since the end of January.
That upward movement came on the heels of Bitcoin securing its first weekly close above the 50-week moving average since November 2025. Alex Thorn of Galaxy has characterized the recovery of this average as a definitive confirmation of previous bear market bottoms.
Prior to that weekly close, Bitcoin had spent 45 consecutive weeks trading below the average. The lowest point during that period occurred in late June when prices dropped close to $58,000.
Since then, Bitcoin has advanced by roughly 49%, changing hands at $86,380 by the time of publication. Calculated from those lows, a 3x increase would reach approximately $174,000—about 38% higher than the October 6, 2025 record of $126,080.
Meanwhile, a 4x advance would translate to around $232,000, and a 5x surge would put the price near $290,000. These figures sit between two separate predictions issued by Matthew Sigel of VanEck, who has projected $100,000 for the upcoming year and $500,000 by the year 2029.
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