Small investors walked away from US stocks in September. Now the firm that handles about 35% of their trades says they are about to come back.
“September was the reset. Q4 is the reload,” Scott Rubner, a strategist at Citadel Securities, wrote to clients on Thursday.
The catch? The call lands as US hiring slows sharply, borrowing costs top 5%, and most stocks fell last month.
The Buyers Who Went Quiet
Retail share trading fell to 0.94 times its one-year average in September, the lowest of 2026, according to Bloomberg. That is 26% below June’s peak.
Retail trading has risen from September to October in each of the past four years, by about 8% on average.
Companies are next. Most cannot buy back their own shares before earnings, and those windows reopen October 15.
Model-driven trading funds have cut their stock bets to the bottom fifth of their range since 2024.
Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings per share to jump 27% this quarter, and Goldman Sachs has dismissed talk of an S&P 500 earnings bubble.
“The story in 2026 has not been a low bar. Expectations have moved higher, and companies have continued to clear them by a wide margin,” Rubner told clients.
Why the Reload Could Misfire
History helps, but it is bumpy. Since 1930, the S&P 500 has averaged a 5.6% gain in the fourth quarter of midterm-election years, almost double the usual 2.9%.
Yet in 14 of those 23 years, the quarter’s low came in October.
“A constructive Q4 setup does not necessarily mean a clean start to October.”
The economy looks shakier. US employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, against forecasts of 84,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2%.
The rally is also thin. BeInCrypto reported that most S&P 500 stocks fell in September, even as the index edged higher.
And consider the messenger. Citadel Securities makes money executing trades, including the retail orders it expects to return.
“September took leverage and positioning out. Q4 brings earnings, catalysts, and buyers back in,” Rubner concluded.
The first test comes October 15.