China told its refiners to stop any fuel exports in October. Yesterday, Russia also extended its diesel export ban for 30 days. With the world already short on oil due to the US-Iran war, this could trigger massive economic hardship.
Less fuel supply means higher inflation and higher consumer prices. In turn, this gives the US Federal Reserve more reason to increase interest rates on October 28.
Will Bitcoin price also pay the price?
China Pauses Fuel Exports After Trump Asked for Help
During Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Washington, President Donald Trump asked him to help steady global fuel supplies.
Now refiners have no approval to ship fuel beyond Hong Kong and Macau, four people briefed on the matter reportedly told Reuters. PetroChina, the state oil giant, has already cancelled several October cargoes.
Beijing wants its own tanks refilled first. Commodity data firm Kpler puts China’s diesel stocks about 20 million barrels short of pre-war levels.
“It highlights that the government’s focus remains domestic supply security. International markets are an afterthought,” Reuters reported, citing Michal Meidan, head of China energy research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
Russia pointed to heavy harvest-season demand. Ukrainian drone strikes have damaged more than 45% of its refining capacity, the Moscow Times reported.
Allegedly, Iran is gone too. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it loaded zero crude onto tankers in September.
Notably, the September zero-loadings claim is not absolute certainty, but it is corroborated by multiple independent commercial tanker trackers.
Why the Diesel Squeeze Reaches Bitcoin
Washington is now leaning on its allies. The Trump administration told Germany and France to release emergency diesel stocks or risk a US diesel export ban.
The Fed already raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. Hike bets faded once August data showed US inflation cooled to 3.4%.
Rate traders now give the Federal Reserve (Fed) a 26% chance of raising interest rates on October 28, CME FedWatch data shows. A week ago, those odds stood at 68.6%.
Higher rates usually lift Treasury yields and the dollar. The dollar’s strongest month since June came in September, a pattern that tends to weigh on Bitcoin, BeInCrypto reported.
If fuel gets more expensive and that pushes the Fed to raise rates again, the dollar usually gets stronger and Bitcoin usually struggles.
China’s Golden Week holiday ends on October 7. Exports may resume only if stocks recover, Reuters sources said. Either way, the Fed meets three weeks later.