Bitcoin currently trades near $84,000, reaching its strongest position since January 2026. However, questions remain over whether BTC can sustain this price band and spark a rally toward $100,000.
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen points to a single indicator to settle the question: the weekly candle close for Bitcoin. Securing a solid weekly close past $82,000 may validate the breakout, whereas slipping beneath that threshold risks turning the upward surge into another false alarm.
Note: A weekly close filters out short-lived price spikes. Traders often see it as a stronger signal than what happens during a single volatile session.
Bitcoin’s Breakout Still Has One Big Test
According to Cowen, achieving a weekly close higher than the previous May peaks—sitting near $82,500—would instill greater assurance among market participants that Bitcoin has definitively stepped into a fresh bull market.
Should Bitcoin slide back underneath that benchmark, the breakout risks being categorized merely as a wick, representing a fleeting upward push that swiftly reverses.
Broader macroeconomic pressures complicate this test further. On Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5%, hitting a 19-year peak.
At the same time, flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) figures for September significantly exceeded economist forecasts.
Elevated yields have the potential to diminish the appeal of risk-on assets such as Bitcoin.
“I’m trying to be less deterministic about these outcomes… For breakout traders, I think the weekly candle is worth watching closely for either confirmation of the breakout or a failed move back into the range, particularly with rates rising into a supply shock.”
Bitcoin Is Not Predictable Anymore
Such hesitation is warranted, especially since Cowen recently acknowledged that his past prediction of an October cycle trough no longer aligned with actual market behavior.
Consequently, his updated perspective focuses less on forecasting Bitcoin’s upcoming trajectory and more on pinpointing the exact threshold capable of resolving the ongoing debate.
Fellow trader Michaël van de Poppe identifies an equally ambiguous market environment. He notes that while the recent downward correction might already have concluded, a subsequent pullback down to $81,000 remains within the realm of possibility.
The conclusion of this week’s trading session could provide investors with the most definitive indication yet regarding whether Bitcoin has successfully broken out or merely sparked another temporary rally.