Spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds pulled in close to $1 billion on Monday, Sept. 21, though CoinGlass figures indicate that BTC had already rallied earlier that same day due to a short squeeze.
During the session, Bitcoin briefly surpassed $84,000 for the first time since Jan. 31, triggering the liquidation of $262.3 million in short positions within a single hour.
The Squeeze Came Before the ETF Money
This timing sparks debate over which catalyst truly initiated the move. Because spot ETF flows are disclosed only once a day—capturing activity from the U.S. cash session—they register long after Asian and European markets have opened and traded.
The day’s initial surge in BTC stemmed from a short squeeze that elevated prices prior to any execution of same-day ETF purchases. Consequently, the sequence of events points to the derivatives market as the primary catalyst rather than inflows from ETFs.
Outflows in the Dip, Inflows in the Rally
Such behavior aligns with previous patterns where fund flows appeared to follow price action instead of driving it. According to CoinGlass, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows during five out of six trading sessions spanning Sept. 9 to Sept. 16, a period when BTC prices were declining.
A sustained return of positive inflows did not materialize until Sept. 17, coinciding with Bitcoin’s renewed upward momentum. Since then, cumulative inflows have surpassed $56.98 billion, bringing total net assets across every Bitcoin ETF to $107.86 billion.
A look at fund distribution reinforces this trend. The BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounts for 785,640 BTC—exceeding by more than fourfold the 176,510 BTC held in the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC). This heavy concentration in a single product suggests capital is following momentum rather than demonstrating widespread, autonomous conviction.
Flows May Not Spark the Rally, But They Can Extend It
This does not render ETF demand insignificant. Because the creation of new ETF shares obligates market makers to purchase underlying BTC, continuous inflows can supply genuine buying momentum to an existing rally, even if they fail to ignite it.
While available data remains inconclusive regarding whether ETFs can independently trigger a rally, the evidence for this specific upward leg indicates that the futures market took the lead, with Wall Street capital arriving afterward.