On Monday, Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen openly acknowledged that his bearish prediction for Bitcoin had failed, as the leading cryptocurrency surged decisively past $85,000 and triggered a massive short squeeze.
This sharp reversal marks a significant moment for one of the most prominent bearish figures of the current cycle.
A Public Reversal Rooted in Cycle Analysis
Cycle analysis relies on examining previous four-year market periods to project Bitcoin’s future path. Utilizing this approach for months, Cowen argued that historical precedent still favored lower prices prior to any lasting recovery.
Back on September 8, he estimated a 65% chance that Bitcoin’s cycle low was yet to come, and only a 35% probability that the bottom was already established. He consistently pointed to the realized price around $53,000 as a benchmark that prior bear markets had ultimately tested or broken beneath.
In a July memo, he projected a fourth-quarter market bottom—pinpointing October as the most probable timeframe—while drawing parallels to midterm years like 2014, 2018, and 2022. Certain projections even considered a drop toward $44,000.
Even after Bitcoin moved back into the mid-$70,000 range, Cowen insisted that pronouncing the bear market finished was premature. Pointing to past pullbacks following golden crosses, he cautioned that a lower peak reminiscent of 2014 and 2015 was still within the realm of possibility.
By September 20, however, he admitted that the upward surge had persisted longer than anticipated, noting that the expected headwinds from climbing energy prices, rising yields, and a strengthening dollar failed to materialize as forecast.
What Does Bitcoin Above $85,000 Mean?
The market delivered a swift and resounding response. Bitcoin’s ascent beyond $85,000 wiped out more than $831 million in short positions within a single day, compared to roughly $130 million in long liquidations over the exact same period, according to metrics from CoinGlass.
This disparity highlights just how aggressively traders had braced for a deeper market low that ultimately failed to materialize. Market participants who adhered strictly to the bearish narrative faced swift and heavy financial consequences.
In response, Cowen displayed notable transparency, stating directly that he was incorrect, offering no excuses, and accepting the forthcoming criticism. Fellow analyst Michaël van de Poppe praised him as one of the rare bears who maintained ongoing integrity, reminding observers that all analysts eventually make mistakes. Meanwhile, Michael Saylor offered a succinct two-word reaction: welcome ₿ack.
This event offers a clear takeaway for cryptocurrency investors: cycle models function as probabilistic frameworks instead of certainties, and market action can easily invalidate even the most thoroughly researched historical comparisons.
With Bitcoin sustaining levels above $85,000, market focus now turns toward whether this latest breakout will solidify into a sustained bull market. While lingering risks tied to midterm years could potentially reappear, the price action has effectively overruled the prospect of a deeper fourth-quarter bottom.
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