Bitcoin’s price started October roughly 9% higher than its close on the day of the Federal Reserve rate cut, following a September that historical trends suggested should have finished in the red.
The outlook for Bitcoin’s price in October now hinges on who continues to purchase the asset.
Is Bitcoin Following History?
Not this year. Historically, August yields a median return of −7.15% since 2011, yet Bitcoin (BTC) managed a 25% gain this time around. Meanwhile, September carries a median return of −2.34%, but instead recorded an increase of nearly 6%.
Historically, October tends to be more favorable. CryptoRank monthly data shows it has posted gains in 10 of the past 15 years, with a median return of 11.2%. Crucially, following a green September, Bitcoin has historically advanced four out of six times.
Why Are the Funds Slowing Down?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows for seven consecutive sessions starting September 17, accumulating a total of $2.98 billion. However, SoSoValue flow data indicates that the $134.47 million brought in on September 25 represented just 13% of the $998.95 million peak seen on September 21.
By comparison, the buying streak in August lasted for nine sessions totaling $3.04 billion, never falling below 38% of its peak single-day volume. When that streak ended on August 28, Bitcoin dropped by 5.8% by September 15. Even with this vulnerability, alternative buyers remain active.
Who Is Buying Now?
Long-term investors are stepping in. The Hodler Net Position Change metric tracks whether coins held over many months are being accumulated or distributed. After registering red readings from August 2 to August 30 as long-term investors sold, the metric has turned green since August 31.
The indicator dipped to 16,415 BTC on September 25 before rising to 23,172 BTC on September 27, showing that holders are accumulating while institutional funds pause. Nonetheless, a major hazard is forming concurrently.
Where Could a Long Flush Come From?
Liquidation maps highlight areas where leveraged positions face forced closure. On Binance, data from the previous seven days shows short positions leaning heavier, with $1.96 billion positioned above the current price compared to $1.03 billion in long positions below. A minor upward push could trigger a short squeeze.
Conversely, the 30-day map introduces downside risk. Long positions total $4.35 billion down to approximately $74,170, overshadowed by $1.65 billion in shorts. October carries precedent here, as more than $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated on October 10, 2025.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: The Levels for October
On the two-day chart, Bitcoin has traded inside a falling channel pattern since January 13. Buying volume has steadily declined since February 6, and a late-September push stalled at $87,360 near the upper boundary of the channel.
The 50-period exponential moving average (EMA)—which places greater weight on recent price action—resides at $74,117. It is nearing a bullish crossover above the 100-period EMA at $74,312. Additionally, selling volume has cooled since September 22, providing the moving averages room to complete the cross.
Reclaiming $84,433 is the initial objective. Moving past $87,360 opens up resistance hurdles at $90,288, $99,764, and $115,094. On the downside, dropping below $80,811 alongside weak ETF inflows could pull the price down to $74,957, near the moving averages and the cluster of long positions.
Analyst’s View: Historical trends and long-term holders favor a positive October, whereas fading ETF inflows and the heavy 30-day long positioning suggest caution. A two-day close above $87,360 accompanied by renewed ETF buying would favor bullish outcomes, while breaking below $80,811 would bring the $74,000 region back into focus.